Key Events & Earnings Calendar
CPI and PPI set the stage for Warsh's first FOMC on June 17 — Oracle and Adobe headline a focused earnings slate. NFP aftermath and Iran deal negotiations remain the macro wildcard.
Week Highlight
CPI Wednesday
May inflation — headline est. 4.2% YoY. Critical pre-FOMC input.
Central Bank
ECB Thu
Rate cut expected. Lagarde presser drives EUR/USD direction.
Earnings Focus
ORCL + ADBE
Oracle Wed AMC + Adobe Thu AMC. AI cloud and creative AI monetization.
Inflation Double
CPI + PPI
CPI Wed + PPI Thu. Both feed directly into June 17 FOMC decision.
Editor's Note — Most Important Day
Wednesday June 10 is the highest-risk single session
May CPI (08:30 ET) is the most important data print between now and Warsh's first FOMC on June 17. Headline expected at 4.2% YoY — still elevated but potentially the peak if the Iran deal holds and Hormuz oil flows normalize. Core CPI consensus ~3.5%. Bank of Canada rate decision also Wednesday (10:00 ET). Then Oracle reports after the close as the second major AI cloud infrastructure datapoint following Dell's $43.8B blowout. One inflation print and one earnings catalyst define the week's entire tone.
ORCL
Oracle Corporation · Wed AMC · Q4 FY2026
Revenue Est.~$16.9B (+14% YoY)
EPS Est.~$2.18 Non-GAAP
Key MetricOCI RPO backlog
AI CloudOCI capacity easing
Analyst ConsensusBuy
Read-ThroughNVDA / AI infra cycle
Highest Importance
ADBE
Adobe Inc. · Thu AMC · Q2 FY2027
Revenue Est.~$5.84B (+9% YoY)
EPS Est.~$4.97 Non-GAAP
Firefly AI4B+ generations
Key MetricDigital Media ARR growth
WatchAI subscription attach rate
YTD vs. PeersUnderperformed — re-rating risk
High Importance
CASY
Casey's General Stores · Tue AMC · Q4 FY2026
Key WatchGas station volumes
Iran SignalOil price pass-through
Peer ReadLower-income consumer
Fuel MarginWTI $88 — compression or relief?
SectorConsumer Staples / Energy
Iran Oil Read
CHWY
Chewy · Wed AMC · Q1 FY2027
SectorConsumer Discretionary
Key WatchActive customer count + ARPC
SignalAffordable discretionary health
AutoshipRecurring revenue retention
ContextKSS + DLTR both beat — bar rising
Consumer Mosaic
LEN
Lennar Corp · Thu AMC · Q2 FY2026
SectorHomebuilders
Key WatchNew orders + cancellation rate
10Y Yield4.54% post-NFP — headwind
SignalRate sensitivity across housing
ContextFirst housing read at current yields
Rates Barometer
CPB
Campbell's · Mon BMO · Q3 FY2026
SectorConsumer Staples
Key WatchVolume vs. pricing mix
Tariff ImpactIngredient cost pass-through
SignalPantry-loading / trade-down
SectorDefensive — inflation hedge play
Consumer Staples
Macro Theme #1
CPI + PPI — Pre-FOMC Inflation Inputs
May CPI (Wednesday) is the most important number between now and Warsh's June 17 FOMC. Headline est. 4.2% YoY — up from 3.8% in April but potentially the peak as Hormuz deal oil prices filter through in June. Core CPI consensus ~3.5%. Core MoM is the key signal — a second consecutive deceleration (April was +0.2% vs. +0.3% est.) would be meaningfully dovish.
Critical Input
Earnings Theme
Oracle — AI Cloud Demand Confirmation
After Dell's $51.3B AI server backlog and Snowflake's $6B AWS deal, Oracle's remaining performance obligation (RPO) tells us whether cloud capacity commitments are accelerating. Ellison guided that OCI was fully booked into 2027. Revenue growth rate and margin trajectory are the primary reads — database and legacy software businesses are secondary noise.
AI Infrastructure
Earnings Theme
Adobe — AI Monetization Reality Check
Firefly AI has generated 4B+ creative assets. The question: is usage converting into higher-tier subscriptions and enterprise ARR? Salesforce's Agentforce at $1.2B ARR (+205% YoY) set a high bar for AI software monetization. Adobe faces the same question in a different vertical. Stock has underperformed peers YTD — a clean beat with raised guide could unlock a re-rating.
AI Software
Central Bank
ECB Decision — EUR/USD Divergence Trade
ECB expected to cut Thursday. EUR/USD pressing resistance at 1.1400. A dovish Lagarde (more cuts committed) breaks higher. A hawkish surprise pauses the cut cycle. Fed-ECB divergence — ECB cuts while Warsh holds — drives USD strength vs EUR. If ECB warns of renewed energy risk while cutting, European assets face a "forced cut" signal that is negative.
Watch Carefully
Macro Backdrop
NFP Aftermath — Labor Market Still Hot
May NFP: 172,000 jobs — doubled consensus of 85,000. Unemployment held at 4.3%. A hot labor market complicates Warsh's ability to sound dovish even if inflation data improves. Jobless claims Thursday will confirm whether the strength is a trend or a one-month print. Any deterioration in claims creates a stagflation signal (hot CPI + rising unemployment) — the worst possible Fed scenario.
Fed Complication
Geopolitical
Iran Deal — FOMC Wildcard
Deal framework MoU still awaiting Trump's final approval. Two blocking items remain: asset release sequencing and CENTCOM blockade timing. Any announcement before June 17 FOMC fundamentally changes Warsh's calculus — oil falling to $80 gives him explicit cover to hold with a dovish language shift. BofA warning: tariff inflation persists regardless of the Iran deal and remains a non-energy floor under CPI.
Background Risk